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| I've always had a problem with these national polls because, to me they are virtually unverifiable.... or are they... Please consider these two issues: (population estimates are based upon the US Census web site at http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/) | |||||||||||||
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ISSUE 1
The 1998 estimates of
the US Population is 270,933,000. Assuming a pollster would not count
kids under 15 (which represents 58,196,000 people) then the number
of available polling candidates in the US is about 212,737,000 people.
On
the Gallup Poll web site, they list 24 polls taken between August
'98 through Dec '98. That's an average of 4.8 polls per month. Each
of the Gallup polls will question an average of 1,000 people. That
equates to 4,800 people polled per month or approximately 57,600 polled
in 1998 by Gallup alone.
If Gallup polled 57,600 from the available
212,737,000 polling candidates in 1998, then 1 out of every 3,693
people in the US was polled in 1998 by Gallup. If San Antonio has
a population of 1,200,000 people, then last year 325 San Antonioians
should have been polled by Gallup in 1998.
If there are several
National Polling companies that has been polling for many years then
I would expect that literally several thousand San Antonioians would
have been polled over the past 5 to 10 years. How is it that I have
never been polled? No one that I know have ever been polled. None
of my family, friends, acquaintances and associates knows anyone who
knows anyone whose been polled. When I travel nationally, people call
on the local radio and exclaim that they don't know of anyone whose
been polled, and people who call the national radio programs laments
the same discrepancy (and people who have been polled are not calling
the radio stations to identify themselves). So where are the 57,600
people who Gallup alone polled this year?
Because I do not find
the occasional individual who have been polled, I therefore strongly
suspect that Gallup (and other national polling organizations) are
deliberately targeting high population areas (such as the Northeast,
Chicago, LA, etc.) which are largely liberal and ignoring the rest
of America.
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